ASP WCT sce­nar­ios going into the penul­ti­mate stop of the tour (Peniche)

If Mick Fan­ning were to win the upcom­ing Rip Curl Pro Search Portugal:

Joel Parkin­son (AUS), 28, would need a 9^th or bet­ter and Adri­ano de Souza (BRA), 22, would need a 3^rd or bet­ter to pre­vent him from clinch­ing the 2009 ASP World Title in Portugal.

If Mick Fan­ning fin­ishes Runner-​​Up at the upcom­ing Rip Curl Pro Search Portugal:

Joel Parkin­son (AUS), 28, would need a 17^th or bet­ter, Adri­ano de Souza (BRA), 22, a 5^th or bet­ter, Kelly Slater (USA), 37, and Bede Dur­bidge (AUS), 26, a win to pre­vent him from clinch­ing the 2009 ASP World Title in Portugal.

If Mick Fan­ning (AUS), 28, fin­ishes 3^rd at the upcom­ing Rip Curl Pro Search Portugal:

Joel Parkin­son (AUS), 28, would need a 33^rd, Adri­ano de Souza (BRA), 22, a 9^th, Kelly Slater (USA), 37, and Bede Dur­bidge (AUS), 26, will need a Runner-​​Up fin­ish, and C.J. Hob­good (USA), 30, and Taj Bur­row (AUS), 31, will need to win to pre­vent Fan­ning from clinch­ing the 2009 ASP World Title in Portugal.

(via)

Given that a 10^th title is noth­ing but a math­e­mat­i­cal shot for Kelly (not that it looks he’s even car­ing), I’m root­ing for Joel. Mick’s surfs like a aer­o­bics class, Bede just surfs plain ugly (and has been aver­age at the most all year) and the rest is plain unlikely. But, as the author states, sil­lier things have happened.